As a metric for rate of technological change, I would want to look at what fraction of economic activity world-wide takes place using novel technologies. That is, what fraction of what we do is based on 5 year old technology vs 50 years vs 500 years vs 5000 years?
The trouble is, how do we interpret “based on”? Suppose I grow GM tomatoes. Agriculture is more than 5000 years old, but in much of the world tomatoes are only 500 years old. Do I count the GM part as 5 years, or 50? And suppose I distribute the tomatoes by airfreight and apply adhesive barcode labels to each tomato to assist the retailers. What fraction of my tomato-growing activity gets listed in each technology-age category.
Is the rate accelerating? I think so. It took 50 to 100 years to really exploit the scientific discoveries of the 19th century (electromagnetism, chemistry, evolutionary biology). Science hasn’t produced anything quite so dramatic in the 20th century, but we do seem to be exploiting it more rapidly—more like 25 to 50 years for full exploitation. Flight, atomic power, computers, antibiotics, lasers. Plus, a much smaller fraction of mankind is, say, more than 50 years behind the leaders than was the case 100-200 years ago.
What fraction of my tomato-growing activity gets listed in each technology-age category.
Maybe determine the fractions by the value added by each tier of technology? I don’t know much about economics and would like someone knowledgeable to chime in.
As a metric for rate of technological change, I would want to look at what fraction of economic activity world-wide takes place using novel technologies. That is, what fraction of what we do is based on 5 year old technology vs 50 years vs 500 years vs 5000 years?
The trouble is, how do we interpret “based on”? Suppose I grow GM tomatoes. Agriculture is more than 5000 years old, but in much of the world tomatoes are only 500 years old. Do I count the GM part as 5 years, or 50? And suppose I distribute the tomatoes by airfreight and apply adhesive barcode labels to each tomato to assist the retailers. What fraction of my tomato-growing activity gets listed in each technology-age category.
Is the rate accelerating? I think so. It took 50 to 100 years to really exploit the scientific discoveries of the 19th century (electromagnetism, chemistry, evolutionary biology). Science hasn’t produced anything quite so dramatic in the 20th century, but we do seem to be exploiting it more rapidly—more like 25 to 50 years for full exploitation. Flight, atomic power, computers, antibiotics, lasers. Plus, a much smaller fraction of mankind is, say, more than 50 years behind the leaders than was the case 100-200 years ago.
My proposal here was simply to weigh things:
http://machine-takeover.blogspot.com/2009/07/measuring-machine-takeover.html
I figure it is easier to weigh things than it is to calculate their economic impact.
Maybe determine the fractions by the value added by each tier of technology? I don’t know much about economics and would like someone knowledgeable to chime in.