We have had quite significant news accumulating this week; Delta (Indian) COVID-19 has been shown to be (central estimate) 2.5 times deadlier than existing strains and the central estimate of its increased transmissibility is down a bit, but still 50-70% on top of B.1.1.7(just imagine if we’d had to deal with Delta in early 2020!), though with a fairly small vaccine escape. This threadgives a good summary of the modelling and likely consequences for the UK, and also more or less applies to most countries with high vaccination rates like the US.
For the US/UK this situation is not too concerning, certainly not compared to March or December 2020, and if restrictions are held where they are now the R_t will likely soon go under 1 as vaccination rates increase. However, there absolutely can be a large exit wave that could push up hospitalizations and in the reasonable worst case lead to another lockdown. Also, the outlook for the rest of the world is significantly worse than it looked just a month ago thanks to this variant—see this by Zeynep Turfecki.
The data is preliminary, and I really hope that the final estimate ends up as low as possible. But coupled with what we are observing in India and in Nepal, where it is rampant, I fear that the variant is a genuine threat.
In practical terms, to put it bluntly, it means that the odds that the pandemic will end because enough people have immunity via getting infected rather than being vaccinated just went way up.
There are also some concerns that the Delta variant picked up an additional mutation that helps it circumvent vaccines. (And even if it didn’t happen yet, with many people already vaccinated but Delta cases growing rapidly in many places, it’s just a matter of time until virus evolution gets there. But there are booster shots being tested already.)
I don’t put the ‘from the perspective of the USA’ caveat on my statements as much as I likely should, and I agree that the question of how the endgame plays out elsewhere is something I haven’t paid enough attention to. I’ve noted the links here and will incorporate the question into next week.
(Note that my time this week was highly limited, which was also why I pushed to next week all leak-related issues, especially the question of Gain of Function research)
We have had quite significant news accumulating this week; Delta (Indian) COVID-19 has been shown to be (central estimate) 2.5 times deadlier than existing strains and the central estimate of its increased transmissibility is down a bit, but still 50-70% on top of B.1.1.7 (just imagine if we’d had to deal with Delta in early 2020!), though with a fairly small vaccine escape. This threadgives a good summary of the modelling and likely consequences for the UK, and also more or less applies to most countries with high vaccination rates like the US.
For the US/UK this situation is not too concerning, certainly not compared to March or December 2020, and if restrictions are held where they are now the R_t will likely soon go under 1 as vaccination rates increase. However, there absolutely can be a large exit wave that could push up hospitalizations and in the reasonable worst case lead to another lockdown. Also, the outlook for the rest of the world is significantly worse than it looked just a month ago thanks to this variant—see this by Zeynep Turfecki.
Effective Altruists may want to look to India-like oxygen interventions in other countries over the next couple of months.
There are also some concerns that the Delta variant picked up an additional mutation that helps it circumvent vaccines. (And even if it didn’t happen yet, with many people already vaccinated but Delta cases growing rapidly in many places, it’s just a matter of time until virus evolution gets there. But there are booster shots being tested already.)
I don’t put the ‘from the perspective of the USA’ caveat on my statements as much as I likely should, and I agree that the question of how the endgame plays out elsewhere is something I haven’t paid enough attention to. I’ve noted the links here and will incorporate the question into next week.
(Note that my time this week was highly limited, which was also why I pushed to next week all leak-related issues, especially the question of Gain of Function research)
Where does this number come from?