I recall it as part of our (unrecorded) conversation, but I could be misremembering. Given your reaction I think I was probably misremembering. Sorry for the error!
So, to be clear, what is the probability someone else could state such that you would have “something to say about it” (ie, some kind of argument against it)? Your own probability being 0.5% − 1% isn’t inconsistent with what I said (if you’d have something to say about any probability above your own), but where would you actually put that cutoff? 5%? 10%?
If someone says 10% by 2030, we disagree, but it would be hard to find something to talk about purely on that basis. (Of course, they could have other more specific beliefs that I could argue with.) If they say, IDK, 25% or something (IDK, obviously not a sharp cutoff by any means, why would there be?), then I start feeling like we ought to be able to find a disagreement just by investigating what makes us say such different probabilities. Also I start feeling like they have strategically bad probabilities (I mean, their beliefs that are incorrect according to me would have practical implications that I think are mistaken actions). (On second thought, probably even 10% has strategically bad implications, assuming that implies 20% by 2035 or similar.)
I recall it as part of our (unrecorded) conversation, but I could be misremembering. Given your reaction I think I was probably misremembering. Sorry for the error!
So, to be clear, what is the probability someone else could state such that you would have “something to say about it” (ie, some kind of argument against it)? Your own probability being 0.5% − 1% isn’t inconsistent with what I said (if you’d have something to say about any probability above your own), but where would you actually put that cutoff? 5%? 10%?
If someone says 10% by 2030, we disagree, but it would be hard to find something to talk about purely on that basis. (Of course, they could have other more specific beliefs that I could argue with.) If they say, IDK, 25% or something (IDK, obviously not a sharp cutoff by any means, why would there be?), then I start feeling like we ought to be able to find a disagreement just by investigating what makes us say such different probabilities. Also I start feeling like they have strategically bad probabilities (I mean, their beliefs that are incorrect according to me would have practical implications that I think are mistaken actions). (On second thought, probably even 10% has strategically bad implications, assuming that implies 20% by 2035 or similar.)