First footnote, right on front page: “We disagree somewhat amongst ourselves about AI timelines; our median AGI arrival date is somewhat longer than what this scenario depicts. This scenario depicts something like our mode. See our timelines forecast for more details.”
...But no, I guess it doesn’t say that Daniel K’s median is 2028, iirc. (haven’t checked, going on memory) The timelines forecast has Eli and Nikola’s medians because they were the ones who wrote it.
Does it say this somewhere on the website?
First footnote, right on front page: “We disagree somewhat amongst ourselves about AI timelines; our median AGI arrival date is somewhat longer than what this scenario depicts. This scenario depicts something like our mode. See our timelines forecast for more details.”
...But no, I guess it doesn’t say that Daniel K’s median is 2028, iirc. (haven’t checked, going on memory) The timelines forecast has Eli and Nikola’s medians because they were the ones who wrote it.