Off topic but amusing:
I personally consider it more probable that a Republican president will be elected in 1996 than that it will snow in Chicago sometime in the month of May, 1994.
Leonard Savage, Foundations of Statistics, page 27
See this and this.
Without context, I can’t tell whether he was trying to say the chances were high, low, extraordinarily different, or slightly different.
Chance of snow 40% and chance of Republican win 45% satisfies the quote.
I would have guessed more like 20% and 45%, but the point was that he was unlucky, not miscalibrated.
Off topic but amusing:
Leonard Savage, Foundations of Statistics, page 27
See this and this.
Without context, I can’t tell whether he was trying to say the chances were high, low, extraordinarily different, or slightly different.
Chance of snow 40% and chance of Republican win 45% satisfies the quote.
I would have guessed more like 20% and 45%, but the point was that he was unlucky, not miscalibrated.