I think of all the posts that Holden has written in the last two years, this is the one that I tend to refer to by far the most, in-particular the “size of economy” graph.
I think there are a number of other arguments that lead you to roughly the same conclusion (“that whatever has been happening for the last few centuries/millenia has to be an abnormal time in history, unless you posit something very cyclical”), that other people have written about (Luke’s old post about “there was only one industrial revolution” is the one that I used to link for this the most), but I think this post has a more minimal set of assumptions, and more directly argues for this claim.
I think of all the posts that Holden has written in the last two years, this is the one that I tend to refer to by far the most, in-particular the “size of economy” graph.
I think there are a number of other arguments that lead you to roughly the same conclusion (“that whatever has been happening for the last few centuries/millenia has to be an abnormal time in history, unless you posit something very cyclical”), that other people have written about (Luke’s old post about “there was only one industrial revolution” is the one that I used to link for this the most), but I think this post has a more minimal set of assumptions, and more directly argues for this claim.