Let’s agree that your priors should go up slightly towards some event being behind the disaster that will lead to future flights being more risky. It’s still nowhere near high enough to be significant.
How many airplane crashes were of this type? Very few, if any. So a prior on how much the prior should update should be upper-bounded by 1/number of crashes that didn’t have such effects, at a crude estimate.
Or if there are some, of which you should give examples, as it would make your point clearer, then it’s roughly bounded by num of crashes that led to such a situation/total num of crashes.
Plus add filtering for reference classes of crashes, e.g. how many died, other details, etc.
Let’s agree that your priors should go up slightly towards some event being behind the disaster that will lead to future flights being more risky. It’s still nowhere near high enough to be significant.
How many airplane crashes were of this type? Very few, if any. So a prior on how much the prior should update should be upper-bounded by 1/number of crashes that didn’t have such effects, at a crude estimate.
Or if there are some, of which you should give examples, as it would make your point clearer, then it’s roughly bounded by num of crashes that led to such a situation/total num of crashes.
Plus add filtering for reference classes of crashes, e.g. how many died, other details, etc.