These stories are very funny. If anyone wants to express themselves by borrowing some money at 15% interest, or a $1 million forward contract on Bitcoin, my DMs are open.
In college I played poker: first a $20 buy-in game in the freshman dorm, then sometimes a $200 buy-in game at a frat house or similar, and also a weekly $1 buy-in game with many non-poker-playing friends in the lounge of the Computer Science building.
Because the numbers were so small, we kept a ledger for the $1 game, but then it also served as a public leaderboard, generated more interest than the money among those with a competitive disposition. So the game could play tight even with the small buy-ins.
A similar principle might make sense here. People want to be ranked highly for their predictions, so if there were a suitable leaderboard then people could lower the stakes and make fewer nonsensical “bets on their beliefs,” while still disciplining the predictions.
I know there’s Metaculus and prediction markets—maybe they serve this purpose already.
These stories are very funny. If anyone wants to express themselves by borrowing some money at 15% interest, or a $1 million forward contract on Bitcoin, my DMs are open.
In college I played poker: first a $20 buy-in game in the freshman dorm, then sometimes a $200 buy-in game at a frat house or similar, and also a weekly $1 buy-in game with many non-poker-playing friends in the lounge of the Computer Science building.
Because the numbers were so small, we kept a ledger for the $1 game, but then it also served as a public leaderboard, generated more interest than the money among those with a competitive disposition. So the game could play tight even with the small buy-ins.
A similar principle might make sense here. People want to be ranked highly for their predictions, so if there were a suitable leaderboard then people could lower the stakes and make fewer nonsensical “bets on their beliefs,” while still disciplining the predictions.
I know there’s Metaculus and prediction markets—maybe they serve this purpose already.