There are plenty of “semi-public” bets—made known among a social group for enforcement and camaraderie reasons. A whole lot of private sports wagering takes this form—everyone can see the pool or knows who has what teams. This makes watching the events more fun, and prevents confusion or disingenuity when it comes time to pay.
But wagers that have publicity components, not just being incidentally public, are usually motivated by that publicity. Especially long-dated outcomes, which bring immediate payout in terms of discussion and reporting of the bet itself.
I don’t think I agree with your recommendation to avoid this—I hold no opprobrium to pundits or public persons (or wannabes even) striving to stay relevant and interesting to their audience. I do recommend that one understand that public actions have complex motives and consequences. That applies to betting as well as to speaking/posting or any other public action.
Of course it’s signaling.
There are plenty of “semi-public” bets—made known among a social group for enforcement and camaraderie reasons. A whole lot of private sports wagering takes this form—everyone can see the pool or knows who has what teams. This makes watching the events more fun, and prevents confusion or disingenuity when it comes time to pay.
But wagers that have publicity components, not just being incidentally public, are usually motivated by that publicity. Especially long-dated outcomes, which bring immediate payout in terms of discussion and reporting of the bet itself.
I don’t think I agree with your recommendation to avoid this—I hold no opprobrium to pundits or public persons (or wannabes even) striving to stay relevant and interesting to their audience. I do recommend that one understand that public actions have complex motives and consequences. That applies to betting as well as to speaking/posting or any other public action.