These are very poor odds, to the point that they seem to indicate a bullish rather than a bearish position on AI.
If you think the odds of something are y, but lots of other people think they are x with x<<y, then the rational action is not to offer bets at a point close to x; it’s to find the closest number to y possible. Why would you bet at 1:5 odds if you have reason to believe that some people would be happy to bet at 1:7 odds?
You could make an argument that this type of thinking is too mercenary/materialistic or whatever, but then critique should be about that. In any case the inference that offering a bet close to x indicates beliefs close to x is just not accurate.
This only works if you’re the only bookmaker in town. Even if your potential counterparties place their own subjective odds at 1:7, they won’t book action with you at 1:7 if they can get 1:5 somewhere else.
Perhaps I misread OP’s motivations, but presumably if you’re looking to make money on these kinds of forecasts, you’d just trade stocks. Sure, you can’t trade OpenAI per se, but there are lot of closely related assets and then you’re not stuck in the position of trying to collect on a bet you made with a stranger over the internet.
So, the function of offering such a “bet” is more as a signaling device about your beliefs. In which case, the signal being sent here is not really a bearish one.
If you think the odds of something are y, but lots of other people think they are x with x<<y, then the rational action is not to offer bets at a point close to x; it’s to find the closest number to y possible. Why would you bet at 1:5 odds if you have reason to believe that some people would be happy to bet at 1:7 odds?
You could make an argument that this type of thinking is too mercenary/materialistic or whatever, but then critique should be about that. In any case the inference that offering a bet close to x indicates beliefs close to x is just not accurate.
This only works if you’re the only bookmaker in town. Even if your potential counterparties place their own subjective odds at 1:7, they won’t book action with you at 1:7 if they can get 1:5 somewhere else.
Perhaps I misread OP’s motivations, but presumably if you’re looking to make money on these kinds of forecasts, you’d just trade stocks. Sure, you can’t trade OpenAI per se, but there are lot of closely related assets and then you’re not stuck in the position of trying to collect on a bet you made with a stranger over the internet.
So, the function of offering such a “bet” is more as a signaling device about your beliefs. In which case, the signal being sent here is not really a bearish one.
This is a neat and specific explanation of how I approached it. I tried to be transparent about it though.