This only works if you’re the only bookmaker in town. Even if your potential counterparties place their own subjective odds at 1:7, they won’t book action with you at 1:7 if they can get 1:5 somewhere else.
Perhaps I misread OP’s motivations, but presumably if you’re looking to make money on these kinds of forecasts, you’d just trade stocks. Sure, you can’t trade OpenAI per se, but there are lot of closely related assets and then you’re not stuck in the position of trying to collect on a bet you made with a stranger over the internet.
So, the function of offering such a “bet” is more as a signaling device about your beliefs. In which case, the signal being sent here is not really a bearish one.
This only works if you’re the only bookmaker in town. Even if your potential counterparties place their own subjective odds at 1:7, they won’t book action with you at 1:7 if they can get 1:5 somewhere else.
Perhaps I misread OP’s motivations, but presumably if you’re looking to make money on these kinds of forecasts, you’d just trade stocks. Sure, you can’t trade OpenAI per se, but there are lot of closely related assets and then you’re not stuck in the position of trying to collect on a bet you made with a stranger over the internet.
So, the function of offering such a “bet” is more as a signaling device about your beliefs. In which case, the signal being sent here is not really a bearish one.