I mean, everyone is going to die, absent singularity-like advances in medical/upload capabilities. There are two different doom scenarios:
Everyone dies PREMATURELY and SUDDENLY in the next N (N < 100) years.
VASTLY fewer humans are born and thrive than otherwise in the next M (M > 500) years.
1 implies 2, but not the reverse. I give pretty high chances of #2, but much lower of #1, assuming my “median case” of ASI, being fairly slow and not-magically-super.
Note, I already had a pretty high probability of #1 from non-AI sources. The current revolution in modeling has increased it, but not by much.
I mean, everyone is going to die, absent singularity-like advances in medical/upload capabilities. There are two different doom scenarios:
Everyone dies PREMATURELY and SUDDENLY in the next N (N < 100) years.
VASTLY fewer humans are born and thrive than otherwise in the next M (M > 500) years.
1 implies 2, but not the reverse. I give pretty high chances of #2, but much lower of #1, assuming my “median case” of ASI, being fairly slow and not-magically-super.
Note, I already had a pretty high probability of #1 from non-AI sources. The current revolution in modeling has increased it, but not by much.