I find many of the views you updated away from plausible and perhaps compelling. Given that I have found your wriitng compelling on other topics compelling. Given this I feel like I should update my confidence in my own beliefs. Based on the post I find it hard to model where you currently stand on some of these issues. For example you claim you don’t endorse the following:
The future might be net negative, because humans so far have caused great suffering with their technological progress and there’s no reason to imagine that this will change.
I certainly don’t think its obvious that average suffering will be higher in the future. But it also seems plausible to me that the future will be net negative. ‘The trendline will continue’ seems like a strong enough argument to find a net negative future plausible. Elsewhere in the article you claim that human’s weak preferences will eventually end factory farming and I agree with that. However new forms of suffering may develop. One could imagine strong competitive pressures rewarding agents that ‘negatively reinforce’ agents they simulate. There are many other ways things can go wrong. So I am genuinely unsure what you mean by the fact that you don’t endorse this claim anymore. Do you think it is implausible the future is net negative? Or have you just substantially reduced the probabality you assign to a net negative future?
Relatedly do you have any links on why you updated your opinion of professionalism? I should note I am not at all trying to nitpick this post. I am very interested in how my own views should update.
I find many of the views you updated away from plausible and perhaps compelling. Given that I have found your wriitng compelling on other topics compelling. Given this I feel like I should update my confidence in my own beliefs. Based on the post I find it hard to model where you currently stand on some of these issues. For example you claim you don’t endorse the following:
I certainly don’t think its obvious that average suffering will be higher in the future. But it also seems plausible to me that the future will be net negative. ‘The trendline will continue’ seems like a strong enough argument to find a net negative future plausible. Elsewhere in the article you claim that human’s weak preferences will eventually end factory farming and I agree with that. However new forms of suffering may develop. One could imagine strong competitive pressures rewarding agents that ‘negatively reinforce’ agents they simulate. There are many other ways things can go wrong. So I am genuinely unsure what you mean by the fact that you don’t endorse this claim anymore. Do you think it is implausible the future is net negative? Or have you just substantially reduced the probabality you assign to a net negative future?
Relatedly do you have any links on why you updated your opinion of professionalism? I should note I am not at all trying to nitpick this post. I am very interested in how my own views should update.