I’m confused about what point you’re making with the bike thief example. I’m reading through that post and its comments to see if I can understand your post better with that as background context, but you might want to clarify that part of the post (with a reader who doesn’t have that context in mind).
I think the techniques in this post may be helpful to avoid the kind of overconfidence you describe here and be more disjunctive in one’s thinking.
Here are some other ideas which I continue to endorse which had that ring of truth to them, but whose details I’ve been similarly overconfident about.
I’m curious what details you were overconfident about, in case I can use the same updates that you made.
I’m confused about what point you’re making with the bike thief example. I’m reading through that post and its comments to see if I can understand your post better with that as background context, but you might want to clarify that part of the post (with a reader who doesn’t have that context in mind).
I’m confused about what point you’re making with the bike thief example. I’m reading through that post and its comments to see if I can understand your post better with that as background context, but you might want to clarify that part of the post (with a reader who doesn’t have that context in mind).
I think the techniques in this post may be helpful to avoid the kind of overconfidence you describe here and be more disjunctive in one’s thinking.
I’m curious what details you were overconfident about, in case I can use the same updates that you made.
Can you clarify what is unclear about it?