I think it is worth highlighting that the money in poker isn’t a clear signal, at least not over the time scales humans are used to. If you’re winning then you’re making some hourly rate in EV, but it is obscured by massive swings.
This is what makes the game profitable, because otherwise losing players wouldn’t continue returning to the game. It is hard to recognise exactly how bad you are if you play for fun and don’t closely track your bankroll.
For anyone who hasn’t played much poker and wants to understand the kind of variance I’m talking about, play around with the following variance simulator.
If you’re a recreational playing live cash, and you only play every second weekend, you might see 10,000 hands each year.
If you’re also also spending a little time studying and remain in control of your emotions, you might beat the game for 10bb/100. This is not an easy feat, and puts you ahead of most people you’ll see at the table.
You can still expect to be losing 3 out of every 10 years.
I think it is worth highlighting that the money in poker isn’t a clear signal, at least not over the time scales humans are used to. If you’re winning then you’re making some hourly rate in EV, but it is obscured by massive swings.
This is what makes the game profitable, because otherwise losing players wouldn’t continue returning to the game. It is hard to recognise exactly how bad you are if you play for fun and don’t closely track your bankroll.
For anyone who hasn’t played much poker and wants to understand the kind of variance I’m talking about, play around with the following variance simulator.
https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
If you’re a recreational playing live cash, and you only play every second weekend, you might see 10,000 hands each year.
If you’re also also spending a little time studying and remain in control of your emotions, you might beat the game for 10bb/100. This is not an easy feat, and puts you ahead of most people you’ll see at the table.
You can still expect to be losing 3 out of every 10 years.
video games < poker < trading < life in terms of money as a signal, which reflects increasing complexity of each
also, it’s not unheard of to to beat live games for 30-100+ bb/100