The claim that AIs will foom, basically, reduces to the claim that the difficulty of making AGI is front-loaded
Yes.
the history of invention in general indicates that the first prototype is a major landmark after which the pace of development speeds up dramatically.
This is not actually true. The history of invention in general indicates that the first prototype accomplishes little, and a great deal of subsequent work needs to be done—even in the case of inventions like machine tools and computers that are used for creating subsequent generations of themselves.
Yes, this is right. Prototypes often precede widespread deployment and impact of a technology by decades until various supporting technologies and incremental improvements make them worth their costs.
Yes.
This is not actually true. The history of invention in general indicates that the first prototype accomplishes little, and a great deal of subsequent work needs to be done—even in the case of inventions like machine tools and computers that are used for creating subsequent generations of themselves.
Yes, this is right. Prototypes often precede widespread deployment and impact of a technology by decades until various supporting technologies and incremental improvements make them worth their costs.