the shift in probability will be much smaller than the shift in probability for having life in the first place, which is a total unknown
This is a crucial step in your argument. It depends on our initial prior for extraterrestrial life being very low. If that prior were slightly higher, the argument would work just as well in reverse, or maybe balance out. There’s something icky about this whole business.
This is a crucial step in your argument. It depends on our initial prior for extraterrestrial life being very low. If that prior were slightly higher, the argument would work just as well in reverse, or maybe balance out. There’s something icky about this whole business.