Not sure about all the abstract issues involved, but I read a blog where a more practical version of similar issues came up with startups. This might be a more interesting test case because you can do more research and be surprised by data and so on?
Having a co-founder right away might be a “bozo filter” for an investor: it helps convince an early investor that you’re not a bozo who nobody sane will work with. However, if you are such a bozo, somehow getting a co-founder won’t change that fact that you’re a bozo; and conversely, if you’re not bozish (bozonic?), deciding to initially forgo having a co-founder will not turn you into an innate bozo. Therefore, I speculate it may be vitally important for an investor to insist on co-founders, but it may be less important from the founder’s point-of-view for a pre-funding founder to immediately acquire co-founders.
I think that’s an issue of signalling rather than Evidential Decision theory. It’s clearly the right decision to get a co-founder whatever theory you use, because there is a clear causal link between getting a co-founder and getting money from an investor.
I think the puzzle Rolf was wondering about was the ordering of the steps in between Step 1 “I’m going to start something” and Step N “Approach investor”. Do you want “Get co-founder” to be step 2 (before you’re even sure what the idea is and who you should be looking for) or step N-1 (when you know a lot more from steps 2, 3, …. N-3, N-2 but still don’t know how hard the co-founder step will actually be)?
If it’s purely a matter of signaling to the investors then you’d think that later would be OK. If it’s a matter of learning something important about yourself then maybe the co-founder step should be earlier so you don’t accidentally waste your time on something you weren’t cut out for anyway… unless we hypothesize some sort of bozo-curing self-cultivation that could be performed?
And in the meantime, because this is reality rather than a thought experiment, there is the complicating factor of the value of the co-founder in themselves, bringing expertise and more hands and someone to commiserate/celebrate with and so on.
In that case searching for a co-founder is useful not only for signalling, but for finding out an unknown fact about your own abilities. Once again, something that all seriously considered decision theories recommend, as there is an indisputable causal link between knowing your own abilities and doing well.
Not sure about all the abstract issues involved, but I read a blog where a more practical version of similar issues came up with startups. This might be a more interesting test case because you can do more research and be surprised by data and so on?
In any case, Rolf Nelson writes:
I think that’s an issue of signalling rather than Evidential Decision theory. It’s clearly the right decision to get a co-founder whatever theory you use, because there is a clear causal link between getting a co-founder and getting money from an investor.
I think the puzzle Rolf was wondering about was the ordering of the steps in between Step 1 “I’m going to start something” and Step N “Approach investor”. Do you want “Get co-founder” to be step 2 (before you’re even sure what the idea is and who you should be looking for) or step N-1 (when you know a lot more from steps 2, 3, …. N-3, N-2 but still don’t know how hard the co-founder step will actually be)?
If it’s purely a matter of signaling to the investors then you’d think that later would be OK. If it’s a matter of learning something important about yourself then maybe the co-founder step should be earlier so you don’t accidentally waste your time on something you weren’t cut out for anyway… unless we hypothesize some sort of bozo-curing self-cultivation that could be performed?
And in the meantime, because this is reality rather than a thought experiment, there is the complicating factor of the value of the co-founder in themselves, bringing expertise and more hands and someone to commiserate/celebrate with and so on.
In that case searching for a co-founder is useful not only for signalling, but for finding out an unknown fact about your own abilities. Once again, something that all seriously considered decision theories recommend, as there is an indisputable causal link between knowing your own abilities and doing well.