But it might nevertheless automate most jobs within a decade or so, and then continue churning along, automating new jobs as they come up.
I think this is less likely than I did a year ago, and a lot of this is informed by Steve Newman’s blog post on a project not being a bundle of tasks.
My median expectation is we get 1-3 year 50% of tasks done by 2030, and 1-3 months 80% of tasks done by 2030, which under this view is not enough to automate away managers, and depending on how much benchmarks diverge from reality, may not even be enough to automate away most regular workers, and my biggest probable divergence is I don’t expect super-exponential progress to come soon enough to bend these curves up, due to putting much less weight on superexponential progress in the next 5 years as a result of trend breaks than you.
I think this is less likely than I did a year ago, and a lot of this is informed by Steve Newman’s blog post on a project not being a bundle of tasks.
My median expectation is we get 1-3 year 50% of tasks done by 2030, and 1-3 months 80% of tasks done by 2030, which under this view is not enough to automate away managers, and depending on how much benchmarks diverge from reality, may not even be enough to automate away most regular workers, and my biggest probable divergence is I don’t expect super-exponential progress to come soon enough to bend these curves up, due to putting much less weight on superexponential progress in the next 5 years as a result of trend breaks than you.
Here’s the link for a project is not a bundle of tasks.
I have nothing to say on the rest of your comment.
Your link to “a project is not a bundle of tasks” is broken. Presumably it should be this.
Correct on that.