I think that one could also explain Elieser’s idea in a different manner. DeepSeekV3[1] was trained on 14.8T tokens. Were it to experience 10-20 tokens/second, as humans likely do, it would require between 700B and 1.4T seconds. Since a year is built of ~31M seconds, the 700B seconds become ~23 thousands of years and the 1.4T seconds become ~46 thousands of years.
A talented human at the peak of one’s capabilities learns the skills necessary to contribute to an area or to excel in a competition like chess in at most 30 years since birth. An AI who lived experiences worth thousands, if not millions, of years will likely have encountered a major part of tricks that the human has to offer or even be able to outright predict the opponent’s next most likely plan and the advisor’s idea. Attempting to give advice to an ASI wouldn’t be more useful than trying to teach someone who spent thousands of years studying all kinds of martial arts[2] to the point of instinctively predicting the opponent’s next move to fight in a specific style.
Which I use because the precise number of its parameters and tokens on which it was pretrained have been made public. Closed-source models like o3 and o4-mini have only estimates like Kokotajlo’s.
I strongly suspect that there exist Chinese web novels where the protagonist does exactly that, since there exists a Russian web novel where something similar happens.
I think that one could also explain Elieser’s idea in a different manner. DeepSeekV3[1] was trained on 14.8T tokens. Were it to experience 10-20 tokens/second, as humans likely do, it would require between 700B and 1.4T seconds. Since a year is built of ~31M seconds, the 700B seconds become ~23 thousands of years and the 1.4T seconds become ~46 thousands of years.
A talented human at the peak of one’s capabilities learns the skills necessary to contribute to an area or to excel in a competition like chess in at most 30 years since birth. An AI who lived experiences worth thousands, if not millions, of years will likely have encountered a major part of tricks that the human has to offer or even be able to outright predict the opponent’s next most likely plan and the advisor’s idea. Attempting to give advice to an ASI wouldn’t be more useful than trying to teach someone who spent thousands of years studying all kinds of martial arts[2] to the point of instinctively predicting the opponent’s next move to fight in a specific style.
Which I use because the precise number of its parameters and tokens on which it was pretrained have been made public. Closed-source models like o3 and o4-mini have only estimates like Kokotajlo’s.
I strongly suspect that there exist Chinese web novels where the protagonist does exactly that, since there exists a Russian web novel where something similar happens.