This does sound like planning fallacy. This is probably obvious in hindsight, but there’s research suggesting that you can make your estimates more accurate by imagining ways that it could be an underestimate, in advance. This is useful if you strictly want to increase the accuracy of your time estimates.
This doesn’t seem as amazing as it is because this is a domain where you can use reference class forecasting (outside view) to cure planning fallacy like people usually do. It’s notable that there is at last seemingly some way to mitigate planning fallacy on tasks that lack an obvious reference class; it always seemed like a weakness to me that we can only avoid planning fallacy if we have past examples to look at.
I think you can’t estimate the amount of web surfing. This is a bit tongue in cheek but a naive modelling of web surfing as a process that that leads to more surfing (links leading to links) leads to a heavy tailed distribution and that has a variance of infinity and thus a low mean doesn’t mean much (ahem).
Maybe this is behind the feeling that it takes a short time…
This does sound like planning fallacy. This is probably obvious in hindsight, but there’s research suggesting that you can make your estimates more accurate by imagining ways that it could be an underestimate, in advance. This is useful if you strictly want to increase the accuracy of your time estimates.
This doesn’t seem as amazing as it is because this is a domain where you can use reference class forecasting (outside view) to cure planning fallacy like people usually do. It’s notable that there is at last seemingly some way to mitigate planning fallacy on tasks that lack an obvious reference class; it always seemed like a weakness to me that we can only avoid planning fallacy if we have past examples to look at.
I think you can’t estimate the amount of web surfing. This is a bit tongue in cheek but a naive modelling of web surfing as a process that that leads to more surfing (links leading to links) leads to a heavy tailed distribution and that has a variance of infinity and thus a low mean doesn’t mean much (ahem).
Maybe this is behind the feeling that it takes a short time…