I picked the mirror bacteria case as I thought it was the clearest public example of a plausibly existential or at least very near existential biothreat. My guess is there are probably substantially easier but less well specified paths.
mirror bacteria thing to be too hard
For 50 experts given 10 years and substantial funding? Maybe the 10 years part is important—my sense is that superhuman AI could make this faster so I was thinking about giving the humans a while.
to ultimately be counteractable
How do you handle all/most large plants dying? Do you genetically engineer new ones with new immune systems? How do you deploy this fast enough to avoid total biosphere/agricultural collapse?
I think keeping human alive with antibiotics might be doable at least for a while, but this isn’t the biggest problem you have I think.
I picked the mirror bacteria case as I thought it was the clearest public example of a plausibly existential or at least very near existential biothreat. My guess is there are probably substantially easier but less well specified paths.
For 50 experts given 10 years and substantial funding? Maybe the 10 years part is important—my sense is that superhuman AI could make this faster so I was thinking about giving the humans a while.
How do you handle all/most large plants dying? Do you genetically engineer new ones with new immune systems? How do you deploy this fast enough to avoid total biosphere/agricultural collapse?
I think keeping human alive with antibiotics might be doable at least for a while, but this isn’t the biggest problem you have I think.
I don’t currently think it’s plausible, FWIW! Agree that there are probably substantially easier and less well-specified paths.