So many people have lived such grand lives. I have certainly lived a greater life than I expected, filled with adventures and curious people. But people will soon not live any lives at all. I believe that we will soon build intelligences more powerful than us who will disempower and kill us all. I will see no children of mine grow to adulthood. No people will walk through mountains and trees. No conscious mind will discover any new laws of physics. My mother will not write all of the novels she wants to write. The greatest films that will be made have probably been made. I have not often viscerally reflected on how much love and excitement I have for all the things I could do in the future, so I didn’t viscerally feeling the loss. But now, when it is all lost, I start to think on it. And I just want to weep. I want to scream and smash things. Then I just want to sit quietly and watch the sun set, with people I love.
It does not currently look to me like we will win this war, speaking figuratively. But regardless, I still have many opportunities to bring truth, courage, justice, honor, love, playfulness, and other virtues into the world, and I am a person whose motivations run more on living out virtues rather than moving toward concrete hopes. I will still be here building things I love, like LessWrong and Lighthaven, until the end.
Though I have worries, and short timelines, so too do I have hope. I believe the next two years will be pivotal, and that we have important roles to play.
Speaking frankly as mostly an outside observer/commentator this sounds too cultish and too similar to doom posting.
All the words posted on LW so far are just that, words… Any attached meanings, projections, implications, etc., are done so by fallible people similar to you.
So why behave as if the sky is falling?
There still are reasons and arguments, probably very many, yet undiscovered. And that’s not limited to the pros and cons of ‘AI’. (I’m not even sure if there is a widely accepted definition of ‘AI’ that doesn’t cause epistemological problems)
So if you believe you have a mission, then keep on working at that as mentioned, without the trembling in fear in any direction.
For over a decade I have examined the evidence, thought about the situation from many different perspectives (political, mathematical, personal, economic, etc), and considered arguments and counterarguments. This is my honest understanding of the situation, and I am expressing how I truly feel about that.
Can you give me your best one-or-two-line guess? I think the question is trivial from what I’ve written and I don’t really know why you’re not also finding it clear.
yeah last week was grim for a lot of people with r1′s implications for proliferation and the stargate fanfare after inauguration. Had a palpable sensation of it pivoting from midgame to endgame, but I would doubt that sensation is reliable or calibrated.
I disagree extremely. This is the best moment of my life. I am at the best point of my career (powered by o1 and o3 research previews is allowing me to reach the best solutions I couldn’t imagine reaching on my own, much less in such short time) it has helped me create two companies now completely different from my career (I have optimized hydroponic setups and cultivation of mushrooms purely with o1-pro to incredible levels.) My father, a doctor, tells me his patients are better than ever only because his use of o1, doctors are using it in their meetings with their most difficult to diagnose patients. My girlfriends uses it for mental health. I could continue. I feel so empowered. I have read too much of alignment to think that we are going to make it. It’s up to you -really- to choose to feel empowered or down about it. I’m honestly having the best time of my life.
What you’ve lost isn’t the future, it’s the fantasy.
What remains is a game that we were born losing, where there may be few moves left to make, and where most of us most of the time don’t even have a seat at the table.
However, it is a game with very high variance. It is a game where world shaping things happen regularly due to one person getting lucky (right person, right place, right time, right idea etc).
And one thing I’ve noticed in people who routinely excel at high variance games—e.g. Poker, MTG—is how unaffected they are when they’re down/behind. There is a mindset, in the moment, not of playing to win… but of playing optimally—of making the best move they can in any situation, of playing to maximize their outs no matter how unlikely they may be.
To those for whom the OP’s message strongly resonates: let it. Feel it. Give your grief and fear, sorrow and anger their due. Practice self-care; be kind and compassionate to yourself as you would to another who felt what you are feeling.
One morning you will wake up feeling okay, and you’ll realize you’ve felt okay more often than not lately. Then, should this game still appeal to you, it is time to start playing again :)
And one thing I’ve noticed in people who routinely excel at high variance games—e.g. Poker, MTG—is how unaffected they are when they’re down/behind. There is a mindset, in the moment, not of playing to win… but of playing optimally—of making the best move they can in any situation, of playing to maximize their outs no matter how unlikely they may be.
What you’ve lost isn’t the future, it’s the fantasy.
At least under the common conception of fantasy, this is an extremely strong claim, because you are effectively claiming that the good future in Ben Pace’s head could never have been realized, and I see no reason to conclude this from an epistemic perspective at all, unless you are masssively overconfident (even if you do have reasonably high doom probabilities, this statement is not true.)
More generally, it’s known that it does not always add up to normality, see here:
Yes; she has come to visit me for two months, and I have helped her get into a daily writing routine while she’s here. I know she has the ability to finish at least one.
So many people have lived such grand lives. I have certainly lived a greater life than I expected, filled with adventures and curious people. But people will soon not live any lives at all. I believe that we will soon build intelligences more powerful than us who will disempower and kill us all. I will see no children of mine grow to adulthood. No people will walk through mountains and trees. No conscious mind will discover any new laws of physics. My mother will not write all of the novels she wants to write. The greatest films that will be made have probably been made. I have not often viscerally reflected on how much love and excitement I have for all the things I could do in the future, so I didn’t viscerally feeling the loss. But now, when it is all lost, I start to think on it. And I just want to weep. I want to scream and smash things. Then I just want to sit quietly and watch the sun set, with people I love.
Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Do not go gentle into that good night, Dylan Thomas
I’m still fighting. I hope you can find the strength to too.
I think we have the opposite problem: our words are about to fork all the lightning.
Thank you.
It does not currently look to me like we will win this war, speaking figuratively. But regardless, I still have many opportunities to bring truth, courage, justice, honor, love, playfulness, and other virtues into the world, and I am a person whose motivations run more on living out virtues rather than moving toward concrete hopes. I will still be here building things I love, like LessWrong and Lighthaven, until the end.
Though I have worries, and short timelines, so too do I have hope. I believe the next two years will be pivotal, and that we have important roles to play.
Let us hold firm in the face of great danger.
Speaking frankly as mostly an outside observer/commentator this sounds too cultish and too similar to doom posting.
All the words posted on LW so far are just that, words… Any attached meanings, projections, implications, etc., are done so by fallible people similar to you.
So why behave as if the sky is falling?
There still are reasons and arguments, probably very many, yet undiscovered. And that’s not limited to the pros and cons of ‘AI’. (I’m not even sure if there is a widely accepted definition of ‘AI’ that doesn’t cause epistemological problems)
So if you believe you have a mission, then keep on working at that as mentioned, without the trembling in fear in any direction.
For over a decade I have examined the evidence, thought about the situation from many different perspectives (political, mathematical, personal, economic, etc), and considered arguments and counterarguments. This is my honest understanding of the situation, and I am expressing how I truly feel about that.
So then what is forcing you to attach so many fears to this or that?
Can you give me your best one-or-two-line guess? I think the question is trivial from what I’ve written and I don’t really know why you’re not also finding it clear.
yeah last week was grim for a lot of people with r1′s implications for proliferation and the stargate fanfare after inauguration. Had a palpable sensation of it pivoting from midgame to endgame, but I would doubt that sensation is reliable or calibrated.
My feelings here aren’t at all related to any news or current events. I could’ve written this any time in the last year or two.
I disagree extremely. This is the best moment of my life. I am at the best point of my career (powered by o1 and o3 research previews is allowing me to reach the best solutions I couldn’t imagine reaching on my own, much less in such short time) it has helped me create two companies now completely different from my career (I have optimized hydroponic setups and cultivation of mushrooms purely with o1-pro to incredible levels.) My father, a doctor, tells me his patients are better than ever only because his use of o1, doctors are using it in their meetings with their most difficult to diagnose patients. My girlfriends uses it for mental health. I could continue. I feel so empowered. I have read too much of alignment to think that we are going to make it. It’s up to you -really- to choose to feel empowered or down about it. I’m honestly having the best time of my life.
What is true is already so / It all adds up to normality
What you’ve lost isn’t the future, it’s the fantasy.
What remains is a game that we were born losing, where there may be few moves left to make, and where most of us most of the time don’t even have a seat at the table.
However, it is a game with very high variance.
It is a game where world shaping things happen regularly due to one person getting lucky (right person, right place, right time, right idea etc).
And one thing I’ve noticed in people who routinely excel at high variance games—e.g. Poker, MTG—is how unaffected they are when they’re down/behind.
There is a mindset, in the moment, not of playing to win… but of playing optimally—of making the best move they can in any situation, of playing to maximize their outs no matter how unlikely they may be.
To those for whom the OP’s message strongly resonates: let it. Feel it. Give your grief and fear, sorrow and anger their due. Practice self-care; be kind and compassionate to yourself as you would to another who felt what you are feeling.
One morning you will wake up feeling okay, and you’ll realize you’ve felt okay more often than not lately.
Then, should this game still appeal to you, it is time to start playing again :)
This point would be really helpful for everyone.
That said, I’d dispute this claim here:
At least under the common conception of fantasy, this is an extremely strong claim, because you are effectively claiming that the good future in Ben Pace’s head could never have been realized, and I see no reason to conclude this from an epistemic perspective at all, unless you are masssively overconfident (even if you do have reasonably high doom probabilities, this statement is not true.)
More generally, it’s known that it does not always add up to normality, see here:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/74crqQnH8v9JtJcda/egan-s-theorem#oZNLtNAazf3E5bN6X
Is your mother currently spending a lot of her time writing novels?
Yes; she has come to visit me for two months, and I have helped her get into a daily writing routine while she’s here. I know she has the ability to finish at least one.