I’d also be interested to hear something similar where a group in a similar position took positive expected value risks that didn’t work out.
I did some searching and chatting with Claude to come up with “failed Carpathia” examples.
The best I found was the Penlee Lifeboat Disaster: attempted rescue during a storm with an experienced crew, successfully got four people on the lifeboat, then communications cut out. Everyone on board the ship and lifeboat died. There are a few songs about this as well (this one by Seth Lakeman might work).
Some other honorable mentions:
The “Operation Valkyrie” plot to assassinate Hitler. I think it fits the “positive-EV gamble with a bad dice roll” structure well, but I like the overall vibe much less.
The Granite Mountain Hotshots, who died fighting the 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire in Arizona. They were an experienced, elite unit, but the fire shifted unexpectedly.
Dr. Sheik Umar Khan: treated over 100 patients in the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone, wore proper PPE and took many precautions, but contracted and died of Ebola himself. Perhaps closer to “personal sacrifice” than “failed but positive EV risk,” but it’s a story that feels like it would fit at Solstice.
The Chernobyl firefighters, who succeeded in putting out the fire but died of radiation poisoning within weeks. Again, more “personal sacrifice” than “failed mission,” and Soviet information suppression also complicates the story. But “killed by a technological risk you couldn’t have properly modeled, despite taking precautions and successfully addressing parts of the problem” is a theme that would fit in many Solstice programs.
Thanks for all your work on the music, sound, and organization as always!
I did some searching and chatting with Claude to come up with “failed Carpathia” examples.
The best I found was the Penlee Lifeboat Disaster: attempted rescue during a storm with an experienced crew, successfully got four people on the lifeboat, then communications cut out. Everyone on board the ship and lifeboat died. There are a few songs about this as well (this one by Seth Lakeman might work).
Some other honorable mentions:
The “Operation Valkyrie” plot to assassinate Hitler. I think it fits the “positive-EV gamble with a bad dice roll” structure well, but I like the overall vibe much less.
The Granite Mountain Hotshots, who died fighting the 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire in Arizona. They were an experienced, elite unit, but the fire shifted unexpectedly.
Dr. Sheik Umar Khan: treated over 100 patients in the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone, wore proper PPE and took many precautions, but contracted and died of Ebola himself. Perhaps closer to “personal sacrifice” than “failed but positive EV risk,” but it’s a story that feels like it would fit at Solstice.
The Chernobyl firefighters, who succeeded in putting out the fire but died of radiation poisoning within weeks. Again, more “personal sacrifice” than “failed mission,” and Soviet information suppression also complicates the story. But “killed by a technological risk you couldn’t have properly modeled, despite taking precautions and successfully addressing parts of the problem” is a theme that would fit in many Solstice programs.
Thanks for all your work on the music, sound, and organization as always!
FYI @Screwtape @Taymon Beal