Does the Scott Alexander post lay this out? I am having difficulty finding it.
He doesn’t really. Here’s the original article:
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mr-tries-the-safe-uncertainty-fallacy
Also there was a long follow-up where he insists 50% is the right answer, but it’s subscriber-only:
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/but-seriously-are-bloxors-greeblic
He doesn’t really. Here’s the original article:
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mr-tries-the-safe-uncertainty-fallacy
Also there was a long follow-up where he insists 50% is the right answer, but it’s subscriber-only:
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/but-seriously-are-bloxors-greeblic