There is a belief among some people that our current tech level will lead to totalitarianism by default. The argument is that with 1970′s tech the soviet union collapsed, however with 2020 computer tech (not needing GenAI) it would not. If a democracy goes bad, unlike before there is no coming back. For example Xinjiang—Stalin would have liked to do something like that but couldn’t. When you add LLM AI on everyone’s phone + Video/Speech recognition, organized protest is impossible.
Not sure if Rudi C is making this exact argument. Anyway if we get mass centralization/totalitarianism worldwide, then S risk is pretty reasonable. AI will be developed under such circumstances to oppress 99% of the population—then goes to 100% with extinction being better.
I find it hard to know how likely this is. Is clear to me that tech has enabled totalitarianism but hard to give odds etc.
The argument is that with 1970′s tech the soviet union collapsed, however with 2020 computer tech (not needing GenAI) it would not.
I note that China is still doing market economics, and nobody is trying (or even advocating, AFAIK) some very ambitious centrally planned economy using modern computers, so this seems like pure speculation? Has someone actually made a detailed argument about this, or at least has the agreement of some people with reasonable economics intuitions?
No I have not seen a detailed argument about this, just the claim that once centralization goes past a certain point there is no coming back. I would like to see such an argument/investigation as I think it is quite important. “Yuval Harari” does say something similar in “Sapiens”
Who is pushing for totalitarianism? I dispute that AI safety people are pushing for totalitarianism.
There is a belief among some people that our current tech level will lead to totalitarianism by default. The argument is that with 1970′s tech the soviet union collapsed, however with 2020 computer tech (not needing GenAI) it would not. If a democracy goes bad, unlike before there is no coming back. For example Xinjiang—Stalin would have liked to do something like that but couldn’t. When you add LLM AI on everyone’s phone + Video/Speech recognition, organized protest is impossible.
Not sure if Rudi C is making this exact argument. Anyway if we get mass centralization/totalitarianism worldwide, then S risk is pretty reasonable. AI will be developed under such circumstances to oppress 99% of the population—then goes to 100% with extinction being better.
I find it hard to know how likely this is. Is clear to me that tech has enabled totalitarianism but hard to give odds etc.
I note that China is still doing market economics, and nobody is trying (or even advocating, AFAIK) some very ambitious centrally planned economy using modern computers, so this seems like pure speculation? Has someone actually made a detailed argument about this, or at least has the agreement of some people with reasonable economics intuitions?
No I have not seen a detailed argument about this, just the claim that once centralization goes past a certain point there is no coming back. I would like to see such an argument/investigation as I think it is quite important. “Yuval Harari” does say something similar in “Sapiens”