While I don’t doubt that progress is accelerating, are you sure it isn’t exaggerated by backfilling problems that were solved before vibemathed.com was created (July 20, according to Google)? Long-term it won’t matter since most problems will be solved after vibemathed was created, but it matters now.
Unrelated, but I’m curious what are everyone’s predictions for when an LLM will solve one of Millennium math problems, or problems of similar caliber such as Collatz or twin primes.
You’ve reminded me that I need to get some fatebook predictions out on the sorts of questions you raised. I’m probably 50⁄50 on “as significant as Collatz by EOY2026” (but not Collatz specifically) by the standards of the significance prompt, haven’t yet thought about the Millennium prize problems enough to bet on.
While I don’t doubt that progress is accelerating, are you sure it isn’t exaggerated by backfilling problems that were solved before vibemathed.com was created (July 20, according to Google)? Long-term it won’t matter since most problems will be solved after vibemathed was created, but it matters now.
Unrelated, but I’m curious what are everyone’s predictions for when an LLM will solve one of Millennium math problems, or problems of similar caliber such as Collatz or twin primes.
Yup (unless I’m misreading you):
You’ve reminded me that I need to get some fatebook predictions out on the sorts of questions you raised. I’m probably 50⁄50 on “as significant as Collatz by EOY2026” (but not Collatz specifically) by the standards of the significance prompt, haven’t yet thought about the Millennium prize problems enough to bet on.