Might this paradigm be tested by measuring LLM fluid intelligence?
I predict that a good test would show that current LLMs have modest amounts of fluid intelligence, and that LLM fluid intelligence will increase in ways that look closer to continuous improvement than to a binary transition from nothing to human-level.
I’m unclear whether it’s realistic to get a good enough measure of fluid intelligence to resolve this apparent crux, but I’m eager to pursue any available empirical tests of AI risk.
Might this paradigm be tested by measuring LLM fluid intelligence?
I predict that a good test would show that current LLMs have modest amounts of fluid intelligence, and that LLM fluid intelligence will increase in ways that look closer to continuous improvement than to a binary transition from nothing to human-level.
I’m unclear whether it’s realistic to get a good enough measure of fluid intelligence to resolve this apparent crux, but I’m eager to pursue any available empirical tests of AI risk.