“There is significant uncertainty remaining in these estimates and they should be treated as representing the right order of magnitude—each could easily be a factor of 3 higher or lower.”
“In the case of artificial intelligence, everyone agrees the evidence and arguments are far from watertight, but the question is where does this leave us? Very roughly, my approach is to start with the overall view of the expert community that there is something like a one in two chance that AI agents capable of outperforming humans in almost every task will be developed in the coming century.”
″Some of my colleagues give higher chances than me, and some lower. But for many purposes our numbers are similar. Suppose you were more skeptical of the risk and thought it to be one in 100. From an informational perspective, that is actually not so far apart: it doesn’t take all that much evidence to shift someone from one to the other. And it might not be that far apart in terms of practical action either—an existential risk of either probability would be a key global priority.”
“There is significant uncertainty remaining in these estimates and they should be treated as representing the right order of magnitude—each could easily be a factor of 3 higher or lower.”
“In the case of artificial intelligence, everyone agrees the evidence and arguments are far from watertight, but the question is where does this leave us? Very roughly, my approach is to start with the overall view of the expert community that there is something like a one in two chance that AI agents capable of outperforming humans in almost every task will be developed in the coming century.”
″Some of my colleagues give higher chances than me, and some lower. But for many purposes our numbers are similar. Suppose you were more skeptical of the risk and thought it to be one in 100. From an informational perspective, that is actually not so far apart: it doesn’t take all that much evidence to shift someone from one to the other. And it might not be that far apart in terms of practical action either—an existential risk of either probability would be a key global priority.”
- Toby Ord, The Precipice