Manifold dating will fail:
Most men want to date cis women, there are too few cis women on
Manifold. Additionally, the people participating are low-status nerds,
and the scheme is not 100x better than swipe-match making (which is the
factor I'd put on how much better it needs to be to sway good-looking
cis-women to participate.
Also, having 𝒪(n²) markets for matchmaking requires too many
participants, and these markets can't get deep & liquid, traders get
annoyed by repetitive questions fast. Sure, you can just bet among your
friend circle, but then the value-add is small: one-gender-heavy friend
circles can't solve the scarcity problem that swipe-online dating attempts
to solve. So you either get way too many markets that nobody bets on,
or sparse markets that are limited by social connections.
(Indeed, I am not following up with users. Nor maintaining the sheet. And I don’t remember where I stored the message I hashed four years ago; uh oh...)
8b21114d4e46bf6871a1e4e9812c53e81a946f04b650e94615d6132855e247e8
To be revealed: 2024-12-31
Revealed content (@Zach Stein-Perlman didn’t shame me into revealing this):
(Indeed, I am not following up with users. Nor maintaining the sheet. And I don’t remember where I stored the message I hashed four years ago; uh oh...)