Coming back to this, I’m confused about why I wrote that a billion years would simplify the model to “launch immediately” for all non-extreme parameters (before you even talk about discounting or decreasing marginal utility). E.g. if the initial risk is 50% and there’s a 10% reduction per year, you obviously don’t want to launch immediately if you’re trying to maximize the average lifespan of currently living people.
Coming back to this, I’m confused about why I wrote that a billion years would simplify the model to “launch immediately” for all non-extreme parameters (before you even talk about discounting or decreasing marginal utility). E.g. if the initial risk is 50% and there’s a 10% reduction per year, you obviously don’t want to launch immediately if you’re trying to maximize the average lifespan of currently living people.