Excluding AI, and things like human intelligence enhancement, mind uploading ect.
I think that the biggest increases in the economy would be from more automated manufacturing. The extreme case is fully programmable molecular nanotech. The sort that can easily self replicate and where making anything is as easy as saying where to put the atoms. This would potentially lead to a substantially faster economic growth rate than 9%.
There are various ways that the partially developed tech might be less powerful.
Maybe the nanotech uses a lot of energy, or some rare elements, making it much more expensive.
Maybe it can only use really pure feedstock, not environmental raw materials.
Maybe it is just really hard to program, no one has built the equivalent of a compiler yet, we are writing instructions in assembly, and even making a hello world is challenging.
Maybe we have macroscopic clanking replicators.
Maybe we have a collection of autonomous factories that can make most, but not all, of their own parts.
Maybe the nanotech is slowed down by some non-technological constraint, like bureaucracy, proprietary standards and patent disputes.
Mix and match various social and technological limitations to tune the effect on GDP
Excluding AI, and things like human intelligence enhancement, mind uploading ect.
I think that the biggest increases in the economy would be from more automated manufacturing. The extreme case is fully programmable molecular nanotech. The sort that can easily self replicate and where making anything is as easy as saying where to put the atoms. This would potentially lead to a substantially faster economic growth rate than 9%.
There are various ways that the partially developed tech might be less powerful.
Maybe the nanotech uses a lot of energy, or some rare elements, making it much more expensive.
Maybe it can only use really pure feedstock, not environmental raw materials.
Maybe it is just really hard to program, no one has built the equivalent of a compiler yet, we are writing instructions in assembly, and even making a hello world is challenging.
Maybe we have macroscopic clanking replicators.
Maybe we have a collection of autonomous factories that can make most, but not all, of their own parts.
Maybe the nanotech is slowed down by some non-technological constraint, like bureaucracy, proprietary standards and patent disputes.
Mix and match various social and technological limitations to tune the effect on GDP