Okay but the six year trend is not super indicative of the future trend given the way the AI industry has developed in the last couple years. It would be much more useful to have a good measure of the recent trend, and it’s clear we don’t really have that. The wide uncertainty bounds already should have made it clear how noisy this result was, but people have tended to ignore the range and put a lot of stock in the point estimate. The log linear trend may well be legit (probably is) but the use of just 14 tasks to fit the key portion of the results is absurd.
Okay but the six year trend is not super indicative of the future trend given the way the AI industry has developed in the last couple years. It would be much more useful to have a good measure of the recent trend, and it’s clear we don’t really have that. The wide uncertainty bounds already should have made it clear how noisy this result was, but people have tended to ignore the range and put a lot of stock in the point estimate. The log linear trend may well be legit (probably is) but the use of just 14 tasks to fit the key portion of the results is absurd.