In addition to the probability differences, there’s an exclusivity element to cryo that Pascal’s Mugging (and the original Pascal’s Wager) doesn’t have.
The Pascal scenarios are repeatable—there are an infinite number of potential muggers (or possible gods/afterlives), and accepting one likely means you should accept many. If they demand exclusivity, it’s unclear which to choose, and that further reduces the probability estimate of success. Cryonics is limited to one bet: it works or it doesn’t, but you’re not going to be tempted to commit your body/brain to multiple destinations.
In addition to the probability differences, there’s an exclusivity element to cryo that Pascal’s Mugging (and the original Pascal’s Wager) doesn’t have.
The Pascal scenarios are repeatable—there are an infinite number of potential muggers (or possible gods/afterlives), and accepting one likely means you should accept many. If they demand exclusivity, it’s unclear which to choose, and that further reduces the probability estimate of success. Cryonics is limited to one bet: it works or it doesn’t, but you’re not going to be tempted to commit your body/brain to multiple destinations.
Hey, isn’t that a frequentist perspective? Shoo, heretic! /s