C,C is second-best, you prefer D,C and Nash says D,D is all you should expect. C,C is definitely better than C,D or D,D, so in the special case of symmetrical decisions, it’s winning. It bugs me as much as you that this part gets glossed over so often.
Counterfactual Mugging is a win to pay off, in a universe where that sort of thing happens. You really do want to be correctly predicted to pay off, and enjoy the $10K in those cases where the coin goes your way.
C,C is second-best, you prefer D,C and Nash says D,D is all you should expect. C,C is definitely better than C,D or D,D, so in the special case of symmetrical decisions, it’s winning. It bugs me as much as you that this part gets glossed over so often.
I see what you mean, it works as long as both sides have roughly similar behavior.
Counterfactual Mugging is a win to pay off, in a universe where that sort of thing happens. You really do want to be correctly predicted to pay off, and enjoy the $10K in those cases where the coin goes your way.
For me, this would make intuitive sense if there was something in the problem that implied that Omega does this on a regular basis, analogous to the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma. But as long as the problem is worded as a one-shot, once-in-a-lifetime scenario, then it comes off like the $10,000 is purely fictitious.
It’s less than that, you don’t know that you are real and not the hypothetical. If you are the hypothetical, paying up is useful for the real one.
This means that even if you are the real one (which you don’t know), you should pay up, or else the hypothetical you wouldn’t. Winning behavior/policy is the best map from what you observe/know to decisions, and some (or all) of those observations/knowledge never occur, or even never could occur.
C,C is second-best, you prefer D,C and Nash says D,D is all you should expect. C,C is definitely better than C,D or D,D, so in the special case of symmetrical decisions, it’s winning. It bugs me as much as you that this part gets glossed over so often.
Counterfactual Mugging is a win to pay off, in a universe where that sort of thing happens. You really do want to be correctly predicted to pay off, and enjoy the $10K in those cases where the coin goes your way.
I see what you mean, it works as long as both sides have roughly similar behavior.
For me, this would make intuitive sense if there was something in the problem that implied that Omega does this on a regular basis, analogous to the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma. But as long as the problem is worded as a one-shot, once-in-a-lifetime scenario, then it comes off like the $10,000 is purely fictitious.
It’s less than that, you don’t know that you are real and not the hypothetical. If you are the hypothetical, paying up is useful for the real one.
This means that even if you are the real one (which you don’t know), you should pay up, or else the hypothetical you wouldn’t. Winning behavior/policy is the best map from what you observe/know to decisions, and some (or all) of those observations/knowledge never occur, or even never could occur.