I am aesthetically very skeptical of phrases like “absolutely reliable” (in Problem 4). I don’t think it’s possible for something to be absolutely reliable, and it seems dangerous/brittle to commit to achieving something unachievable. However, this may be primarily an aesthetic issue, since I think the solution presented in Problem 3 is very sensible.
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Also: “absolute” is probably the wrong word, yeah. What I’m gesturing toward is the qualitative difference between 99% and 99.99%.
There’s definitely a qualitative shift for me when something moves from “This is very likely to happen” to “This is a fact in the future and I’ll stop wondering whether it’ll happen.”
While I think it’s good to remember that 0 and 1 are not probabilities, I also think it’s worthwhile to remember that in a human being they can be implemented as something kind of like probabilities. (Otherwise Eliezer’s post wouldn’t have been needed!) Even if in a Bayesian framework we’re just moving the probability beyond some threshold (like Duncan’s 99.99%), it feels to me like a discrete shift to dropping the question about whether it’ll happen.
I think that’s a fine time to use a word like “absolute”, even if only aesthetically.
Yeah, there’s some switch from “am maintaining uncertainty” to “am willing to be certain and absorb the cost of an unpleasant surprise.” Or from “would not be surprised by failure” to “have decided to be surprised by failure.”
There’s definitely a qualitative shift for me when something moves from “This is very likely to happen” to “This is a fact in the future and I’ll stop wondering whether it’ll happen.”
While I think it’s good to remember that 0 and 1 are not probabilities, I also think it’s worthwhile to remember that in a human being they can be implemented as something kind of like probabilities. (Otherwise Eliezer’s post wouldn’t have been needed!) Even if in a Bayesian framework we’re just moving the probability beyond some threshold (like Duncan’s 99.99%), it feels to me like a discrete shift to dropping the question about whether it’ll happen.
I think that’s a fine time to use a word like “absolute”, even if only aesthetically.
Yeah, there’s some switch from “am maintaining uncertainty” to “am willing to be certain and absorb the cost of an unpleasant surprise.” Or from “would not be surprised by failure” to “have decided to be surprised by failure.”