But my more general point is that I think you’re wildly overconfident in your ability to manage difficult social situations because I think very few people could successfully navigate the issues that will arise if this goes wrong, and you haven’t given me enough reason to think that you’re extraordinarily good. What little I know of you (this comments section) points towards you being a fairly regular person that gets upset when people pummel you with unfair criticism and reacts in fairly regular ways. I am not convinced that is good enough to undertake a dangerous and BINDING venture.
Since I think it would take an extraordinary person to pull off a soft landing if this goes catastrophically wrong, it would take rather extraordinary evidence to convince me that you are such a person. The sort of answer that would satisfy me is of the sort that involves a good number of other people testifying that they know based on experience that you would be able to handle the worst-case scenarios.
You’re welcome to have your prior of “I think very few people could navigate these kinds of social issues” cause you to bet, in each specific case, that the answer is “no;” default skepticism is clearly the logical strategy there.
But I don’t know where you got the impression that I was trying to update your opinion/satisfy you, or even providing evidence that potentially could. Like, sure, if you conceptualize all of this as “Duncan trying to impress the general public and get them to endorse him personally,” then this is a pretty poor showing—but that wasn’t what this post was for. It’s not one of the targets and never was.
I was seeking as many concrete, object-level criticisms and ideas as I could find, and that’s it. I get that you’re not convinced of me personally, but I was never trying to convince you in the first place; you thinking I’m overconfident or not is pretty noisy evidence and not worth optimizing for. (Further, I posit that attempting to be convincing via internet comments would be a fool’s errand anyway.)
The simple fact is, I am indeed one of those very few people. I can point to three or four other people who are better just in my own small social circle, but they’re busy doing other things and can’t take the time to start a house. You’ll note that there are a few people openly testifying as to my ability in these comments, and also that the biggest testimony is “deciding to join in,” of which twenty did on an experimental weekend and around ten are planning to, long haul.
Yes, that particular question was rhetorical.
But my more general point is that I think you’re wildly overconfident in your ability to manage difficult social situations because I think very few people could successfully navigate the issues that will arise if this goes wrong, and you haven’t given me enough reason to think that you’re extraordinarily good. What little I know of you (this comments section) points towards you being a fairly regular person that gets upset when people pummel you with unfair criticism and reacts in fairly regular ways. I am not convinced that is good enough to undertake a dangerous and BINDING venture.
Since I think it would take an extraordinary person to pull off a soft landing if this goes catastrophically wrong, it would take rather extraordinary evidence to convince me that you are such a person. The sort of answer that would satisfy me is of the sort that involves a good number of other people testifying that they know based on experience that you would be able to handle the worst-case scenarios.
You’re welcome to have your prior of “I think very few people could navigate these kinds of social issues” cause you to bet, in each specific case, that the answer is “no;” default skepticism is clearly the logical strategy there.
But I don’t know where you got the impression that I was trying to update your opinion/satisfy you, or even providing evidence that potentially could. Like, sure, if you conceptualize all of this as “Duncan trying to impress the general public and get them to endorse him personally,” then this is a pretty poor showing—but that wasn’t what this post was for. It’s not one of the targets and never was.
I was seeking as many concrete, object-level criticisms and ideas as I could find, and that’s it. I get that you’re not convinced of me personally, but I was never trying to convince you in the first place; you thinking I’m overconfident or not is pretty noisy evidence and not worth optimizing for. (Further, I posit that attempting to be convincing via internet comments would be a fool’s errand anyway.)
The simple fact is, I am indeed one of those very few people. I can point to three or four other people who are better just in my own small social circle, but they’re busy doing other things and can’t take the time to start a house. You’ll note that there are a few people openly testifying as to my ability in these comments, and also that the biggest testimony is “deciding to join in,” of which twenty did on an experimental weekend and around ten are planning to, long haul.