I’m plausibly interested in betting a few hundred dollars against you, especially if (as seems likely, given your confidence) you were to bet $1000 against my $250 or something like that. If I imagine the hundred closest people I know uttering the above, I think all but one or two of them are wrong/overconfident.
What statement, specifically, would we be betting on? It’s certainly plausible that I’m underestimating the difficulty in getting an entire group to above these standards in comparison to getting one person. Though, I think the main issue may be a difference in what we perceive as average, rather than a model of how hard learning these skills is.
I spent five minutes trying to operationalize, but I couldn’t come up with anything that seemed workable. For now, we’ll just proceed knowing that at least one of us is wrong. =)
Either way is fine with me, but if you can express in any way what you think “average” is for some of these skills, I would like to know because now I’m really curious.
Thanks for taking so much time to keep responding to a fairly random commenter!
I’m plausibly interested in betting a few hundred dollars against you, especially if (as seems likely, given your confidence) you were to bet $1000 against my $250 or something like that. If I imagine the hundred closest people I know uttering the above, I think all but one or two of them are wrong/overconfident.
What statement, specifically, would we be betting on? It’s certainly plausible that I’m underestimating the difficulty in getting an entire group to above these standards in comparison to getting one person. Though, I think the main issue may be a difference in what we perceive as average, rather than a model of how hard learning these skills is.
I spent five minutes trying to operationalize, but I couldn’t come up with anything that seemed workable. For now, we’ll just proceed knowing that at least one of us is wrong. =)
Either way is fine with me, but if you can express in any way what you think “average” is for some of these skills, I would like to know because now I’m really curious.
Thanks for taking so much time to keep responding to a fairly random commenter!