Evolutionary progress has an element of luck (sure we could be wiped out by a meteorite tomorrow) but negative events so far have been relatively rare.
IMO, you’re reading your trend lines wrong—failing to properly account for the decrease in warfare and the rise of surveillance technology.
We are not talking about a “nontrivial chance” here. We are talking about “existential disaster seems likely”. I read that as meaning the chances seem greater than 50%.
Evolutionary progress has an element of luck (sure we could be wiped out by a meteorite tomorrow) but negative events so far have been relatively rare.
IMO, you’re reading your trend lines wrong—failing to properly account for the decrease in warfare and the rise of surveillance technology.
We are not talking about a “nontrivial chance” here. We are talking about “existential disaster seems likely”. I read that as meaning the chances seem greater than 50%.
I find it very, very hard to estimate the actual chances of any particular existential disaster. I would not put that chance below 20% this century.