You talk about two common mistakes in judging risks: taking big risks with bad odds (breaking the “fold pre principle”) or playing it too safe with good odds (breaking the “pocket ace principle”).
In poker, these ideas can clash. If you follow the “fold pre” rule and always fold bad hands, then when you finally play your pocket aces, other players will likely just fold. Plus, if you’re up against 5 players with pocket aces, your chances of winning not so high. So, I don’t think these are universal combo rules. It always depends on who’s at the table, the blinds, and the stack sizes.
When it comes to marriage, friendship, or work, I can’t imagine anyone sizing up their partner or job like they’re pocket aces or 7-2 offsuit! I doubt you’d ask someone out or take a job if you thought of them as 7-2. I’m not even sure you can rate things like that in life.
I totally agree that sunk cost is a big problem (it’s a common thinking trap), but you can’t just boil it down to “fold pre” or “pocket ace” principles. It’s oversimplification.
When you say you often see people playing bad hands, that’s just your view. Let me tweak a saying: “Don’t judge someone until you’ve played their cards.”
In today’s digital world, going for a “pocket ace” strategy, like picking an obvious, “strong” business or idea -throws you into crazy competition. Everyone’s chasing those aces, and it’s super expensive to even get in the game. But now, with tech being so cheap and accessible, you can take a small risk and play something like suited connectors. Those “weaker” ideas might just turn into a royal flush—what startups call a unicorn! So, I’d say young people should play their “bad hands” and go for those wild, less obvious bets. Haha!
In the discussion about AI safety, the central issue is the rivalry between the US and China. However, when AI is used for censorship and propaganda, robots serve as police, the differences in political regimes become almost indistinguishable. There’s no point in waging war when everyone can be brought to the same dystopia.