You forgot about MetaOmega, who gives you $10,000 if and only if No-mega wouldn’t have given you anything, and O-mega, who kills your family unless you’re an Alphabetic Decision Theorist. This comment doesn’t seem specifically anti-UDT—after all, Omega and No-mega are approximately equally likely to exist; a ratio of 1:1 if not an actual p of .5 -- but it still has the ring of Just Cheating. Admittedly, I don’t have any formal way of telling the difference between decision problems that feel more or less legitimate, but I think part of the answer might be that the Counterfactual Mugging isn’t really about how to act around superintelligences: It illustrates a more general need to condition our decisions based on counterfactuals, and as EY pointed out, UDT still wins the No-mega problem if you know about No-mega, so whether or not we should subscribe to some decision theory isn’t all that dependent on which superintelligences we encounter.
I’m necroing pretty hard and might be assuming too much about what Caspian originally meant, so the above is more me working this out for myself than anything else. But if anyone can explain why the No-mega problem feels like cheating to me, that would be appreciated.
That second paragraph was hard for me. Seeing “a)” and “b)” repeated made me parse it as a jigsaw puzzle where the second “a)” was a subpoint of the first “b)”, but then “c)” got back to the main sequence only to jump back to the “b)”, the second subpoint of the first “b)”. That didn’t make any sense, so I tried to read each clause separately, and came up with “1. You are never safe. 2. You must understand. 3. On an emotional basis...” before becoming utterly lost. Only after coming back to it later did I get that repeated letters were references to previous letters.