Your point about any existing stock market exploits quickly degrading into noise has some truth to it, information such as news and events and financial documents is indeed the most important fundamental aspect of trade. But I’d like to point out that EMH proponents are known for comparing stock trading with casino gambling and claiming that technical analysis is useless. I’m not sure if you endorse these statements or not, and I don’t want to knock down a strawman in case you don’t, but I think that EMH overestimates the rationality of market participants and treats them as homogeneous automatons that always arrive to the same conclusions.
Even if information the participants have is the same (which is still not strictly true), there are different ways to interpret that information. For example, people who looked into how Bitcoin works invested in it and got rewarded for their insight while mainstream economists remain skeptical.
There’s no fundamental difference between investing in a stock market and investing in a business. Humans do handpick the stocks better than a blindfolded monkey throwing darts randomly, and it is empirically evident that technical analysis does give a bit of the edge in trade. These and some other arguments can be read here: https://mises-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rae10_2_2_5.pdf
Your point about any existing stock market exploits quickly degrading into noise has some truth to it, information such as news and events and financial documents is indeed the most important fundamental aspect of trade. But I’d like to point out that EMH proponents are known for comparing stock trading with casino gambling and claiming that technical analysis is useless. I’m not sure if you endorse these statements or not, and I don’t want to knock down a strawman in case you don’t, but I think that EMH overestimates the rationality of market participants and treats them as homogeneous automatons that always arrive to the same conclusions.
Even if information the participants have is the same (which is still not strictly true), there are different ways to interpret that information. For example, people who looked into how Bitcoin works invested in it and got rewarded for their insight while mainstream economists remain skeptical.
There’s no fundamental difference between investing in a stock market and investing in a business. Humans do handpick the stocks better than a blindfolded monkey throwing darts randomly, and it is empirically evident that technical analysis does give a bit of the edge in trade. These and some other arguments can be read here: https://mises-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rae10_2_2_5.pdf