tmx

• tmx 7 Feb 2013 3:32 UTC

  0 points

  on: The An­thropic Trilemma

  1) the probability of ending up in the set of winners is

  1/​billion

  2) the probability of being (a specific) one of the trillion is

  1/​(b * t)

  the probability of being a 2) given you are awake is

  p(2 | awake) = P(awake | 2) * p(2)

                      p(awake)
  
  
              = 1 * 1E-21
                ---------
                     1
  
  
  
              = very small