A calculated probability of 0.0000001 should diminish the emotional strength of any anticipation, positive or negative, by a factor of ten million.
I don’t play the lottery, but I sometimes have pleasurable daydreams about what I’d do if I were some great success—found the cure for cancer, proved P=NP, won a Nobel prize… objectively speaking, the probability is extremely low, but it doesn’t scale my pleasure down by a million times.
For example, talking as if you think “simpler explanation” is a knockdown argument for evolution (which it is)
I don’t quite agree—by itself, X being “simpler” is a reason to increase my subjective belief that X is true (assuming that X is in a field where simplicity generally works) but it’s not enough to prove e.g. creationism false. Rather, it is the total lack of evidence for anything supernatural that is the knockdown argument—if I had reason to believe that even one instance of say, ghosts or the effects of prayer were true, then I’d have to think that creationism was possible as well.