For example, talking as if you think “simpler explanation” is a knockdown argument for evolution (which it is)
I don’t quite agree—by itself, X being “simpler” is a reason to increase my subjective belief that X is true (assuming that X is in a field where simplicity generally works) but it’s not enough to prove e.g. creationism false. Rather, it is the total lack of evidence for anything supernatural that is the knockdown argument—if I had reason to believe that even one instance of say, ghosts or the effects of prayer were true, then I’d have to think that creationism was possible as well.
For example, talking as if you think “simpler explanation” is a knockdown argument for evolution (which it is)
I don’t quite agree—by itself, X being “simpler” is a reason to increase my subjective belief that X is true (assuming that X is in a field where simplicity generally works) but it’s not enough to prove e.g. creationism false. Rather, it is the total lack of evidence for anything supernatural that is the knockdown argument—if I had reason to believe that even one instance of say, ghosts or the effects of prayer were true, then I’d have to think that creationism was possible as well.