This reminds me of METR’s study on the effects of AI on software engineer productivity. I bet there’s a small window where you could convince people to be in the control group and never interact with AI, so you could do that right now, but a few years from now, I’m not so sure.
There are still disanalogies like software engineers being comparatively weirder and more niche than ‘people who vote’ and that LLMs are used for productivity, not conversations. On the other side, having an LLM delete your production database or cause something catastrophic seems (I don’t have data on this) to happen way more often than catastrophically bad chatbot conversations.
Another issue is that how are you going to stop the AI from manipulating you a few months / years from now when they are everywhere, even better at manipulation than they are today? I’m mostly unimpressed by AI persuasion today, but I doubt that will hold
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