I think the question of ai controlled humanoid robots vs humans and horses vs cars is interesting. RethinkX on this subject is kinda scary. Humanoid robots amortized over 3 years and say 16-20 hours a day quickly go below minimum wage in America so the question of whether the economy has enough tasks for such a labor revolution that starts out not very general, but becomes more general use over time. So I encourage your thoughts on this topic, as I don’t know what framework to use to think about it
Stephen Richards
Karma: 2
On the software improvements, for me a threshold on usefulness is the removal of obvious flaws to a low enough level to gain human trust. Ie when we think the failing common sense answers are less than 10% can we reduce that to <1% and then <0.1% with software improvements alone (or perhaps software +the next hardware upgrade that Nvidia is currently producing) . My analogy for the trust question is self driving cars where YouTube video makers worry that without near crashes the have nothing to make a video that people will watch. I think this was v13 software and v3or 4 hardware for tesla. Anecdotally I see people retrying the latest models after a year or so since ChatGPT3.5 with more success, so take up for anything useful will be fast as the error rate decreases pass the trust threshold- but do people here think software improvements are enough to pass the trust threshold?
Rory Sutherland has this theory that when women entered the workforce there was extra money in the two worker family that had to go somewhere. One place it went was a slightly nicer house, and that over time the price of a family home rose to take up some of the extra family income. I’m not sure if this idea is particularly useful for solving the problem though