manifold.markets/Sinclair
Sinclair Chen
Karma: 618
Kleros-like mechanism where a jury votes and you only get a reward if you vote the same way as consensus.
Or better, for Community Notes you could use CN algorithm itself (consensus of people across the political aisle)
If you have any skill at software, I actually think it is very simple to prototype simple tabletop games demos with any conventional web stack such as nextjs + firebase. My brother has done it before
You don’t need VR for board games, you just need to transfer the entire board game into a user interface, which very doable since board games are 2D. That said, Tabletop Simulator is a full physics-based board game playing environment, often played on desktop.
I think Among Us (though competitive) has shown that voice chat is all you need. Alternatively, you can lean into limited communication channels as a source of conflict, like Hanabi
Example 4. The management of Generic Corp is missing out on a huge opportunity. So I buy a bunch of stock, use my voting power to advocate for a new set of policies that would churn out nicer widgets at a lower cost. Generic Corp stock goes up, then I sell it at a profit.
there’s also hive (formerly steemit) that tries to reward posters of highly upvoted things, and early upvoters who correctly predict what will become big.
I think empirically money-based social media hasn’t really taken off, but I suspect it’s mostly due to transaction costs, bad UI, and the public goods problem (as information is freely copied). These are all solvable!
Nitpick: pvp tetris exists, is quite popular, and I think a majority of the tetris fanbase in the modern era
Though tetris definitely wasn’t designed to multiplayer and it really shows. You can be good at it without looking much at your opponent at all, and even at high levels of play it is much less interactive at high levels compared to, like, Catherine (which admittedly also wasn’t designed for pvp)
I’ve had success using inositol to treat romantic limerance / obsession. Full writeup here. In short, I tried it out of a theory that brain patterns of people in love is similar to OCD and inositol is used off label to treat OCD. At the peak I took 8g a day. Taking powder inositol under the tongue was faster and more intense but shorter lasting.
Of the people who saw my post, some tried it, and only one other person has told me it helped them get over someone while 2 or 3 people told me it didn’t help at all.
It has a calming effect for me in general.
I still occasionally take 0.5g under the tongue sometimes when I feel like I need to. I try to avoid it because on reflection choosing not to be in love was a bit personality suicide, wasn’t actually what I valued, but I think it’s still good that I have the choice, and that I was able to think about it from a clearer mind
This may be a healthy attitude to have as a player but it’s a terrible attitude to have as a game designer
As in visually looks better.
- LW font still has bad kerning on apple devices that makes it harder to read I think, and makes me tempted to add extra spaces at the end of sentences. (See this github issue)
- Agree / Disagree are reactions rather than upvotes. I do think the reversed order on EAF is weird though
- EAF’s Icon set is more modern
Sometimes when one of my LW comments gets a lot of upvotes, I feel an urge that it’s too high relative to how much I believe it and I need to “short” it
My personal experience—I live in SF and used to live in Berkley / work in Oakland -
There are more “deep rationalists” in Berkeley, Oakland; but there are enough rationalists / EAs in SF to say that a rationalist community exists here. All the big AI capabilities companies are here, and their employees are smart and familiar with lesswrong. And also the non-”rationalists” in SF are way smarter than the non-”rationalists” in Berkeley / Oakland. The baseline level of ambition / energy is way higher. So if you just want to hang out with rational people or chat about deep things then I suggest coming to SF, particularly around the Hayes Valley neighborhood.
South bay sucks though. It really suffers from brain drain. I guess David Friedman (founder of anarcho capitalism) is down there and goes to / hosts ACX meetups sometimes. I consider him the only anchor of the community down there. Almost everyone else cool has left.
I’m happy you analyzed the design of this site! I greedily want rationalists to discuss social media design more. Info tech is truth tech (or it can be!) and despite advances in mediums, text is king.
EA forum has better UI than lesswrong. a bunch of little things are just subtly better. maybe I should start contributing commits hmm
The s-curve in prediction market calibrations
https://calibration.city/manifold displays an s-curve for the market calibration chart. this is for non-silly markets with >5 traders.
This is what it looks like at close:
this means the true probability is farther from 50% than the price makes it seem.
The calibration is better at 1⁄4 of the way to close:
you might think it’s because markets closing near 20% are weird in some way (unclear resolution) but markets 3⁄4 of the way to close also show the s-curve. Go see for yourself.
The CSPI tournament also exhibited this s-curve. In that article it points out predictit does too!
I left a comment there on why I think this might be the case: the AMM is inefficient, limited balances, people chasing higher investment returns elsewhere.
I’m curious what people think. And also curious if polymarket or the indian prediction markets also have a similar curve.
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should I make a real post for this? to-do’s are: look into polymarket data (surely it exists? it’s blockchain) and fit a curvy formula to this.
I’m a fan of corporal punishment as an alternative to prison for most crimes
why should I ever write longform with the aim of getting to the top of LW, as opposed to the top of Hacker News? similar audiences, but HN is bigger.
I don’t cite. I don’t research.
I have nothing to say about AI.
my friends are on here … but that’s outclassed by discord and twitter.
people here speak in my local dialect … but that trains bad habits.
it helps LW itself … but if im going for impact surely large reach is the way to go?
I guess LW is uniquely about the meta stuff. Thoughts on how to think better. but I’m suspicious of meta.
if it is superconducting, I’m excited not just for this material but of the (lost soviet?) theories outlined in the original paper—in general new physics leads to new technology and in particular it would imply other room-temp standard pressure superconductors are possible.
idk it could be the next carbon nanotubes (as in not actually useful for much at our current tech level) or it could be the next steel / (not literally, I mean in terms of increasing rate of gdp growth). like if it allows for more precise magnetic sensors that leads to further materials science innovation, or just like gets us to fusion or something.
I’m not a physicist, just a gambler, but I have a hunch that if the lk-99 stuff pans out that we’re getting a lot of positive EV dice rolls in the near future.
you and i have very different conceptions of low
anyone else super hyped about superconductors?
gdi i gotta focus on real work. in the morning
I’m very much of an egoist but I don’t really agree with this statement. Even if the last smidge of my altruism were deleted, I still wouldn’t rob banks or run a fraudulent asset exchange because I have a very cushy position in society as it is and cooperating with humanity in fact makes my life much better than not. I similarly wouldn’t do existentially crazy things to try to reach the singularity for me personally. Even if normal people wouldn’t understand how I’m burning the commons, you guys would.
I’m like way more likely to do norm-breaking stuff (like sell unlicensed securities) for altruistic reasons, though it is still usually a bad idea.
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I really do feel it’s a bummer that I don’t get to be part of the Future. It really does suck. The way I cope is by trying to make the present a little bit more future (in a way that isn’t existentially threatening). I’ll get to see a few cool things this way at least.