Fun fact on the rolling dice part: even mathematicians as well known as Leibniz have made this error (see https://www.filosofie.info/wp-content/uploads/on-probable-grounds1.pdf, page 50: “for example, with two dice, it is as doable to throw a twelve as to throw an eleven for each can only be done in one way; but it is three times more doable to throw seven, for that can be done by throwing six and one, five and two, and four and three, and one of these combinations is as doable as the other”).
Probability is really hard to understand at an intuitive level !
I would have liked a warning before this phrase, because as I was reading it, one part of my brain automatically started thinking about trying to precommit to the Great Commitment, while another was (literally) screaming very loudly that it would be extremely stupid to do so without thinking it through. I was just left confused for a bit.
Of course, this kind of precommitment, if it is possible at all, would not arise simply from reading the phrase and trying to parse it. But the experience of going through that without being warned beforehand was still a bit disturbing.