The update notes that Daniel revised his estimate partly due to the impressiveness of recent models. One asymmetry worth naming: the forecasting literature on AI timelines has gotten increasingly rigorous about capability measurement. The question of what’s happening on the inside of the systems being measured hasn’t received comparable rigor. That gap probably matters more as the timelines compress.
The update notes that Daniel revised his estimate partly due to the impressiveness of recent models. One asymmetry worth naming: the forecasting literature on AI timelines has gotten increasingly rigorous about capability measurement. The question of what’s happening on the inside of the systems being measured hasn’t received comparable rigor. That gap probably matters more as the timelines compress.